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College Football Playoff predictions, odds: Expert picks for Alabama vs. Ohio State in national championship

Your betting guide with the best picks and overall plays for the College Football Playoff National Championship
Alabama and №3 Ohio State will meet at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday night in the College Football Playoff National Championship — a contest which may turn out to be one of the most intriguing matchups we’ve seen in the title game recent memory. The Crimson Tide ran roughshod through the SEC en route to the conference title, while the undefeated Buckeyes needed only six games to claim their conference crown and earn a berth in the CFP.

That was where things got really interesting. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields exploded vs. №2 Clemson with 385 yards passing and six touchdown tosses despite suffering a rib injury late in the second quarter that had the junior wincing in pain throughout the second half. Speaking of explosions, running back Trey Sermon has rushed for 636 yards and four touchdowns over the last three games, and he has benefitted from an offensive line that has come of age as the Buckeyes found their offensive identity. The defense showed out against the Tigers, which was the most important development of the Sugar Bowl. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence was harassed all night, including up the middle — a quarterback’s worst nightmare.

The big story in Columbus, Ohio, over the last week has involved player availability. All eyes have been on Fields’ ribs, and coach Ryan Day insists that his superstar will be ready to go on Monday night. The Buckeyes have also been dealing with a COVID-19 issue that has brought up the possibility of delaying the game until Jan. 18.

Alabama, led by Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith and star quarterback Mac Jones, had no issue with №4 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. The offense racked up 7.95 yards per play thanks to brilliant play-calling from offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. His ability to scheme to get his playmakers — including running back Najee Harris — the ball in space has been stellar all season no matter what the opposing defense is giving them. There might be a small concern that Sarkisian’s new role as Texas coach could become a distraction, but Alabama coach Nick Saban has plenty of experience preparing for big games with assistants who are set for bigger roles elsewhere.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Saban and defensive coordinator Pete Golding scheme up a plan to slow down Fields. The dual-threat star found plenty of success through the air with wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and he also got the tight ends involved more than they have been all year.

So how does this incredibly difficult season finish up on Monday in these two teams first meeting in seven years? Alabama is a sizable favorite over Ohio State with a large point total set. However, the Buckeyes are great as an underdog — as we saw in the semifinal matchup against Clemson. Let’s take a closer look at how you can attack every angle available for this game.

Take the points, but you won’t need them. Ohio State will win this one outright. The Buckeyes’ front seven played lights out against Clemson, especially up the middle. That will prove costly to an Alabama offensive line that is missing star center and Rimington Award winner Landon Dickerson. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes’ offensive line found its stride late in the season which, under normal circumstances, would be the middle of a 12-game schedule. That’s what is important here. How many teams find their stride midway through a normal schedule? Tons. It happens every year. That’s essentially where the Buckeyes are right now. It’ll be a line of scrimmage game. Ohio State will win more of those battles than Alabama, leading to a hard fought win in which the under hits. Pick: Ohio State +8 | Ohio State 35, Alabama 31 — Barrett Sallee

Will the Buckeyes be missing a number of key starters? And if so, what positions will be affected? It’s vital information to have when handicapping a game, but it’s also important to remember that this isn’t the first time Ohio State has dealt with such issues. Even last week against Clemson, it was Ohio State without a few players that still managed to win convincingly. Still, even as good as Clemson may be, Alabama is a different case entirely. Assuming large chunks of the roster aren’t missing, this is an Ohio State team capable of giving Alabama problems. The Crimson Tide have been an absolute juggernaut all season. Their offense is led by three players who finished in the top five of Heisman Trophy voting with the winner in wide receiver DeVonta Smith as well as quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and oh yeah, they might get WR Jaylen Waddle back this week as well. The emergence of Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon (636 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last three games) has added another dimension to the Ohio State offense and takes a lot of the load off Justin Fields’ shoulders. The Buckeyes should be able to move the ball and score on this Alabama defense. This is why, with the information available now, the Buckeyes cover the spread. Pick: Ohio State +8 | Alabama 38–31 — Tom Fornelli

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Dennis Dodd

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Chip Patterson

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Tom Fornelli

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Barrett Sallee

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Ben Kercheval

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Jerry Palm

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David Cobb

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Adam Silverstein

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Marcus Nelson

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Brandon Wise

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Jack Crosby

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Total (75): If we look at both these teams, the over has been a smart bet for both this season. The over is 7–5 in Alabama’s 12 games, and it’s 4–2–1 in Ohio State’s seven. What’s more relevant to this discussion, however, is the points involved in those games.

There has been an average of 67.2 points scored in Alabama’s 12 games this season. Only three of Alabama’s games featured more than the 75 points in this total. There was its 52–24 win over Texas A&M, the 63–48 win over Ole Miss, and the 52–46 win over Florida. This would be the fourth time Alabama has played a game with a total in the 70s, and they’ve gone over in two of the three (Ole Miss, Florida). The third, against Arkansas, finished 15.5 points below the projected total.

On the Ohio State side, its games have featured an average of 65.4 points. Of the seven games the Buckeyes have played, three have gone over this 75-point total as well. There was a 49–27 win over Rutgers, a 42–35 win over Indiana, and last week’s 49–28 win over Clemson. None of those games featured a total this high. The total of 69 in last week’s semifinal against Clemson was the highest.

We’ve made it, college football fans.

There were plenty of moments when it seemed doubtful there would even be a 2020 season, and the one we just experienced was anything but ordinary. But by the end of the night, either Alabama (12–0) or Ohio State (7–0) will be crowned national champion in the seventh edition of the College Football Playoff.

Neither of these perennial power programs is a stranger to the big stage. The Crimson Tide have been in every playoff but one, while the Buckeyes are in their fourth playoff and second championship game.

Now, if we move to the College Football Playoff National Championship itself, we see this is the highest total for any title game in the event’s seven years. The previous high was in the 2014 game between Ohio State in Oregon, which was set at 72.5; the teams finished well below that with 62 points. The average total for the first six title games has been 57.8 points, and the average title game has finished with 64.8 points. The only title game to finish with more than 75 points scored was at the end of the 2015 season when Alabama beat Clemson, 45–40.

These are two prolific offenses capable of matching that feat, which is why the total is so high. But considering the history and the stakes, the smartest play here is to take the under. It’ll likely be a terrifying ride, but sometimes you have to do what you have to do. Pick: Under 75

Special sides: While I have Ohio State covering the full-game spread, I like Alabama’s value in the first quarter. All season long, Ohio State has been a slower-starting team in the first quarter, and it picks up in the second quarter. In the first quarter, the Buckeyes offense ranks 10th nationally, scoring 10.4 points per game; however, the defense ranks 40th, allowing 4.9 points. In the second quarter, Ohio State ranks third nationally with 14.9 points scored, and the defense leaps to first nationally, allowing only 2.9 points. Compare that to Alabama, which ranks third nationally in points scored per game in the first quarter (12.2) and 14th on defense with only 3.1 points allowed. Based on those trends, the odds favor Alabama having a lead after the first 15 minutes. Pick: Alabama -0.5 First Quarter

So who will win Alabama vs. Ohio State in the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model on a 56–36 roll on top-rated college football picks.